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probability good; Wall St. ridiculous (2008-09-22)
I read this when it came out and thought it was pretty good. The first half, about how people figured out how probability worked, was really entertaining. The end, about how the geniuses on Wall St. conquered risk, is so wrong it's hilarious. Bernstein is a victim of what Taleb calls the ludic fallacy -- mistaking well-defined games like craps for the truly unpredictable.

So go read "The Black Swan" or "Fooled by Randomness" instead.

Great Reward (2008-09-14)
My friends and colleagues have a hard time believing that one of the most entertaining books I have ever read is about risk management and probability. Yet, Peter Bernstein's masterpiece bestseller is just that. By tracing the development of risk through the ages, he sets the personalities of the key innovators against the background of the times, and shows the practicality of what they did and how it changed the way we look at the world.

Most of my favorite mathematicians are profiled here, in witty and digestible bites of prose that often read more like a novel than a business book. The chapter titles themselves bear witness to the delightful style of the author: The Man with the Sprained Brain, The Measure of Our Ignorance and The Fantastic System of Side Bets are just a few examples. The segues between chapters and sections are also very well-done - creating a bit of suspense and making this quite a page-turner.

With apologies for seeming trite, there is a high probability, at little risk, of reaping a great reward from the story told by Mr. Berstein.

Excellent overview of the history of financial risk management (2008-09-12)
Against The Gods is a popular account of the history of financial risk management. The author takes us through a journey of discovery spanning almost a thousand years, from the introduction of Arabic numerals and the concept of zero, to the most sophisticated derivative instruments of modern finance. At each point in history when a great leap forward was made, the personalities involved are introduced, and the advances they are credited with are explained. All throughout, mankind's age-old struggle to measure and control uncertainty is seen to stumble time and again against the same, seemingly insurmountable problem: There is no guarantee that what happened in the past will continue to happen in the future.

The book is highly recommended for anyone seeking to understand the origins of modern risk management and what the concept of risk really means.

Today's hero is often tomorrow's blockhead. (2008-08-25)
There are two things that I really liked about this book, and one thing that I didn't. The good things:

1) The author's vast knowledge of the financial markets, from most of a century of experience.
2) His extensive and entertaining history of risk analysis.

The bad thing:

His attempts to explain math concepts that he apparently doesn't understand very well.

His history of risk analysis was a pleasure to read -- from Fibonacci and Cardano, to Markowitz and Sharpe. My favorite, was his coverage of Francis Galton, the man who measured everything.

Above all, the greatest value in this book is that it's packed with the author's knowledge of finance, from 63 years of experience. He's 89 years old now, and appears to still be going strong.

This book is well worth reading.

My favorite quote from the book:
Today's hero is often tomorrow's blockhead.(pg 297)

Very Interesting! (2008-08-10)
Risk Management has always been interesting to me, and learning about the history of it through this book has increased my understanding tremendously. The book is written very well, and it reads very easily for the material being discussed. I was pleasantly surprised as I delved further and further into the book.